REAL ESTATE REMAINS UNCERTAIN
Aug 9th, 2011
While we have all looked hopefully to an improving real estate market as 2011 progressed, it is now fairly clear that we’re in for continued uncertainty as financial concerns continue to rock the economy.
On the International level, the downgrade last week of the United States’ credit rating by Standard & Poor’s has triggered a dramatic sell-off in the stock market and raising the borrowing costs for the government. This means the cost of US Treasury bonds will climb and can be expected to push up real estate interest rates for new loans. Those borrowers with adjustable loans tied to Treasury rates can expect similar increases. The biggest fear is that this, combined with instability with European financial markets, will cause businesses to continue holding onto cash instead of investing in new jobs. Business confidence and job growth is needed to lift us out of this recession and avoid further declines.
On the National level, real estate foreclosure rates continue to climb. Lender Processing Servcice reports that 217,000 new foreclosures were started in June and that 4.1 million loans are now either in foreclosure or 90+ days delinquent. This is a 13% increase from last year. What this indicates is that efforts to assist upside-down borrowers continue to fail. Plus, we’re seeing an increase of defaults among borrowers who have interest-only loans which will convert to full-pay in 2012. Without an option to modify, refinance, or sell, many such borrowers are deciding to take the hit now. The key to making such a decision is knowing whether the borrower will be at risk of a lender lawsuit for recourse after a foreclosure or shaort-sale. BPE Law’s consult services for upside-down borrowers can answer these questions for California property owners.
California remains in disarray as borrowers, lenders, and agents still try to make sense of the recently passed SB458 which amended California Civil Code Section 580e. By barring junior lenders from either deficiancy recourse or contribution, the legislature suddenly made short sales an all or nothing situation. All lenders owe their investors a fiduciary duty to try to recover as much as reasonably possible. First lenders generally make more money from a short sale than they would from a foreclosure so, this change has not substantially affected them. But junior lenders now must weigh the nominal amount offered them by a first lender (typically $3,000) against what they might recover by suing the borrower for deficiency after the first lender forecloses. Unless the borrower is clearly a Bankruptcy candidate, junior lenders will increasingly find foreclosure more attractive than short sale. For Realtors, this means further declines in short sale closing rates, more REO properties, and continued market decline.
We have a long way to go and many hurdles to cross before we reach any kind of certainty. Huge lawsuits are being filed against lenders by their investors, most recdently AIG’s $10 billion suit last week against BofA. Meanwhile, the proposed Settlement of the Attorneys General lawsuits against lenders arising from the “robo-signer” scam remains in limbo. The battle-ground there is demands that lenders modify loans and cut principal balances. The lenders refuse… or at least refuse to agree to government-imposed loan changes. For upside-down borrowers, there is no indication that anything transpiring in the economy or in the courts will bring any more hope for homeowners nor will there be any government bailout.
In the long run, as with past recessions, it will take inspiring and effective political leadership to move us forward. Today’s political infighting in Washington and in the States - especially California - has not produced any sense of confidence in the US or the World that we have the political will to make the hard decisions necessary to put our economy on a path to recovery. Any path will be painful. How that pain is balanced will remain the battle-ground.





















