REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK FOR 2011
Jan 4th, 2011
As we enter this New Year, our economy remains in serious condition and millions remain in default and uncertain about their housing futures. Yet in the midst of this mess, there is both Good News and Bad News.
First the Good News – 2011 should see some improvement in the general economy as the damage from the real estate and financial market collapse begins to resolve. We’re already witnessing climbing values in the stock market and record prices for commodities such as gold and silver. This may not mean confidence but at least people with money to invest aren’t keeping their money under their pillow. Interest rates are edging up but are still historically low. Retailers have reported strong sales during the Christmas season and, in general, despite all of the political battles between Republicans and Democrats, consumers are feeling somewhat upbeat. They’re still in pain but most can feel the healing taking place.
Now the Bad News - This recession will not be over in 2011, particularly as it affects real estate. While the economy may be slowly improving, businesses are being slow to expand and so unemployment remains very high. Without greater certainty of stable employment, people are hesitant about making major purchases such as homes. This uncertainty is causing economists to predict that California could be looking at another 10-11% drop in housing prices during this year fueled both by high unemployment and enormous State budget deficits. Millions of homeowners still face possible foreclosure as loan modifications remain unavailable to most. Further, the impact of the real estate bubble collapse is expanding:
1) Subprime Loan Borrowers - This was the first phase of damage from the recession. Although most of these sub-prime loans have by now been foreclosed or short-sold, 2011 will see another wave of defaults on those 2006-7 loans with 5 year adjustments. As these move from interest-only to fully amortized, borrowers could see their loan payments double removing any capacity to pay;
2) Economy Impacted Borrowers - This is the second phase of the recession and it’s where we are today and will likely be for at least another year. The tough part about a collapsing bubble is that it also causes “collateral damage” to those with good loans. Millions have lost their jobs, or had cut backs or government furloughs that leave them unable to pay their loans. And with California’s record budget deficits, no-one has any confidence that State spending will improve. Significantly, many economy-impacted borrowers may have other assets that they could spend to cover their loan deficiencies, but with no end in sight and further value losses predicted, many are finding it wise to “strategically default” rather than disclose their other assets to their lenders as part of a loan modification or short sale application. For these borrowers, letting a foreclosure occur may make more financial sense.
3) Commercial Borrowers – This is the third phase and the one with the largest economic consequences. One doesn’t have to look far to see empty store fronts of businesses that have closed terminating their jobs in the process. Each of these also means a loss of income for the owner of the property and, added together, can cause the property owner to default resulting in a possible loss of all businesses. 2010 saw foreclosures nationwide of shopping centers and office complexes and large manufacturing companies. Unlike home foreclosures, the failure of commercial loans often involves tens of millions of dollars in debt, loss of hundred or even thousands of jobs, and the loss of tax dollars for communities. These problems together could bankrupt the lenders and even the communities where the businesses are located. As a result, we’re now seeing commercial loan workout programs coming together with owners, lenders, accountants, community leaders, and others seeking to find a way to prevent the wide-spread losses that failure would bring. We’ll likely be working on this area through 2014 and this will be the key in finally turning the corner from recession to real recovery in the real estate market.
Meanwhile, lenders are picking up the pace of foreclosures and filing lawsuits to recover loan deficiencies. In response, borrowers and governments are fighting back. I’ll cover this in more depth in my next posting along with how you can protect yourself.
If you have specific questions about your liability in California or about short sales, foreclosure, or any legal issues, feel free to contact us at sjbeede@bpelaw.com. We offer a $200 flat fee consultation to evaluate your liabilities and strategize a resolution. This can be done in person or by phone. If interested, please call us at 916-966-2260.
The information presented in this Article is not to be taken as legal advice. Every person’s situation is different. If you are upside-down on your loan(s), especially if you’re facing a lender lawsuit, get competent legal advise in your State immediately so that you can determine your best options.
